QNB

Economics

Is there a long-term bull case for copper ?

Posted on : Mon, 23 Sep 2024 Commodities are one of the pillars of the global economy, vital for real...

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Fiscal positions are set to deteriorate further across the G-7

Posted on : Mon, 9 Sep 2024 “We are all Keynesians now.” That was notoriously stressed by US president Richard...

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How much monetary easing can the US Fed engineer?

Posted on : Sun, 01 Sept 2024 Each summer, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) hosts a highly anticipated economic policy...

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How fast should the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates?

Forecasting policy rates in the US has been a challenge in recent quarters, after the aggressive monetary policy tightening stabilised...

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ECB reinforces the need for a nimble, data dependent monetary policy

Every summer, the European Central Bank (ECB) organizes a sought-after monetary policy forum in Sintra, Portugal. The event is one...

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Bank of England is set to start monetary easing cycle

Amongst the advanced economies, the U.K. has experienced one of the worst post-Covid inflation outbursts. In response, the Bank of...

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The European Central Bank sets the stage for additional tightening

Posted on : Mon, 17 Jul 2023 The European Central bank raised its policy interest rates once again in June,...

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Global outlook improvement is supported by stronger major economies

At the beginning of the year, strong headwinds set a pessimistic tone in outlining global growth expectations for 2024. The...

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China’s growth is gaining further momentum in 2024

Early in the year, China was one of the main reasons for relatively tepid global growth projections for 2024. After...

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EM resiliency supports capital inflows

We started the year with a constructive view for emerging markets (EM) in 2024. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) “dovish...

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Shift in US growth expectations signals a soft landing

The resilience of the US economy has driven a dramatic shift in its growth expectations. During the first half of...

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Where is the USD going from here?

Few indicators convey as much information about global macro trends than the direction of currency fluctuations. This is particularly valid...

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India will achieve remarkable growth despite structural challenges

Posted on : Sun, 12 May 2024 India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, and rapidly...

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What to expect of the “last mile” of US inflation normalization?

Posted on : Sun, 07 May 2024 Historically, particularly over the so-called “Great Moderation” period (1990-2019) dominated by positive growth...

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Southeast-Asia adapts to the “next normal” in economic growth

Posted on : Sun, 31 Mar 2024 In recent decades, Southeast Asia has been the most dynamic region in the...

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Global trade growth is set for a modest recovery in 2024

Posted on : Sun, 17 Mar 2024 International trade is a direct reflection of the state of the global economy....

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Will the US Federal Reserve “dovish” pivot hold?

Posted on : Sun, 10 Mar 2024 The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep its benchmark policy rate...

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Is there any hope for Euro area growth in 2024?

Posted on : Sun, 03 Mar 2024 The Euro area has been in a negative spiral since early 2022, when...

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Are capital flows ready to return to EM in earnest?

Posted on : Mon, 19 Feb 2024 Over the last two years, emerging markets (EM) suffered from significant volatility in...

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Is it time for gold to shine again as a core asset for diversification?

Posted on : Mon, 19 Feb 2024 Gold’s role in the economic and investment landscape has long been a subject...

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Potential growth in emerging markets faces significant headwinds

Posted on : Tue, 28 Jan 2024 Emerging markets (EM) have been a driver of global economic growth for many...

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Global trade stabilized but no boom in sight for H1 2024

Posted on : Mon, 22 Jan 2024 Global trade is widely considered a crucial metric for evaluating economic activity. In...

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Positive surprises dominated the economic environment in 2023

Posted on : Sun, 31 Dec 2023 The year of 2023 started on a negative note for the global economy....

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Understanding inflation in the U.S.

Posted on : Mon, 25 Dec 2023 The outbreak of the Covid-pandemic in 2020 marked the beginning of a sequence...

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Financial conditions are tight in major advanced economies

Posted on : Mon, 18 Dec 2023 Since the beginning of the Covid-pandemic, an extraordinary sequence of global shocks propelled...

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Commodity prices suggest global macro headwinds are not over

Posted on : Mon, 11 Dec 2023 Commodity markets have been experiencing unprecedented bouts of volatility and dislocation since the...

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What is next for the Japanese Yen?

Posted on : Mon, 13 Nov 2023 Few indicators convey as much information about the state of a country’s economy...

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Euro-area economy on the edge of recession

Posted on : Wed, 22 Nov 2023 Since 2022, the resilience of the Euro-area economy has been pushed to its...

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Capital flows to EM are facing significant short-term headwinds

Posted on : Mon, 30 Oct 2023 Late last year and early this year, emerging markets (EM) started to benefit...

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European Central Bank gets ready to halt interest rate tightening cycle

Posted on : Wed, 25 Oct 2023 A combination of extraordinary shocks in the Euro Area and the subsequent policy...

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Emerging markets growth is set to face significant headwinds

Posted on : Mon, 9 Oct 2023 Emerging markets (EM) have been a symbol of economic dynamism in recent decades....

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Looming headwinds weigh on Euro area economic growth

Posted on : Mon, 2 Oct 2023 Late last year, the Euro Area was facing significant headwinds from a battery...

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Worldwide debt levels set to pose long-term risks for global growth

Posted on : Mon, 25 Sep 2023 The Covid-19 pandemic represented a negative shock of unprecedented magnitude to the global...

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How to interpret the US yield curve inversion?

Posted on : Mon, 18 Sep 2023 US economic growth has surprised to the upside in recent quarters, supporting global...

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Southeast Asia is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic growth in 2023

Posted on : Tue, 12 Sep 2023 Before the Covid-pandemic, Southeast Asia was one of the most dynamic regions in...

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China’s recovery was strong but uncertainty remains for 2024

Posted on : Mon, 4 Sep 2023 Early in the year, China was one of the main reasons for our...

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What to expect of the EUR going forward?

Posted on : Mon, 4 Sep 2023 The Euro (EUR) has appreciated significantly against the US Dollar (USD) since September...

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Global trade is set to recover in the coming months

Posted on : Tue, 22 Aug 2023 International trade is a key indicator of the dynamism of the global economy....

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Global growth resilient with little room for positive surprises

Posted on : Mon, 14 Aug 2023 Early in the year, negative narratives from investors and analysts dominated the global...

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Where is the US Federal Reserve heading?

Posted on : Mon, 7 Aug 2023 The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has been on the move to revert a...

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Commodity prices point to a challenging global macro environment

Posted on : Mon, 29 May 2023 Commodity markets have been particularly volatile since early 2020. The negative demand shock...

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Why is global capital returning to EM?

Posted on : Wed, 10 May 2023 Despite a challenging global macro environment, driven by factors such as high inflation,...

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What to expect from the BoJ’s new monetary policy approach?

Posted on : Tue, 11 Apr 2023 One of today’s biggest macro-economic challenges for policy makers and central bankers on...

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How can the US Fed balance inflation and financial stability concerns?

Posted on : Mon, 3 Apr 2023 The US Federal Reserve is often pressured to ease or pivot away from...

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Are EM returning to growth outperformance in 2023?

Posted on : Sun, 19 Mar 2023 Over the last decade, emerging markets (EM) were a synonym for economic dynamism,...

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Global activity surprises to the upside despite headwinds

Posted on : Mon, 13 Mar 2023 The year started with negative sentiment dominating the global macro-economic environment and outlook....

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Global trade is set to stabilize in the coming months

Posted on : Tue, 7 Mar 2023 Global trade is widely considered a crucial metric for evaluating economic activities between...

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ECB reaffirms record tightening cycle to rein in inflation

Posted on : Wed, 1 Mar 2023 The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to reaffirm the most aggressive tightening cycle...

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Is gold set to continue acting as a safe-haven asset?

Posted on : Mon, 20 Feb 2023 Gold has long been a source of debate and contention among economists and...

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Japanese inflation is back and the Bank of Japan needs to move further

Posted on : Mon, 6 Feb 2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has historically been at the forefront of radical...

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Are Sub-Saharan African economies resilient to global economic shocks?

Posted on : Mon, 30 Jan 2023 After a strong economic recovery from the 2020 pandemic shock, select frontier markets...

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Southeast Asia is set to re-take its leading growth position in 2023

Posted on : Mon, 23 Jan 2023 Pre-pandemic, Southeast Asia was one of the most dynamic economic regions in the...

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Global macro challenges dominated the economic environment in 2022

Posted on : Mon, 16 Jan 2023 This closing year started on a positive note for the global economy. Market...

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How bleak is the Euro area growth outlook?

Posted on : Mon, 9 Jan 2023 Euro area growth prospects have been particularly volatile in recent quarters. The region...

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China’s cyclical recovery to be delayed by new wave of Covid-19 cases

Posted on : Wed, 4 Jan 2023 China remains a major source of uncertainty for the global growth outlook. After...

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Volatile oil prices are expected to remain elevated

Posted on : Wed, 4 Jan 2023 Oil markets have been experiencing unprecedented bouts of volatility and dislocation since the...

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Global macro challenges dominated the economic environment in 2022

Posted on : Wed, 4 Jan 2023 This closing year started on a positive note for the global economy. Market...

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What drives divergent EM inflation?

Posted on : Mon, 5 Dec 2022 Elevated inflation has been a dominant topic throughout this year. Across countries, inflation...

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How will major central banks respond to rising financial instability?

Posted on : Mon, 14 Nov 2022 The global macro environment is presenting some of the most challenging conditions in...

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Global trade is set to contract over the coming months

Posted on : Mon, 14 Nov 2022 Global trade is often referred to as a key barometer of economic activities...

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The Euro area faces energy security and fiscal sustainability challenges

Posted on : Tue, 18 Oct 2022 As a global recession becomes increasingly likely, we turn our attention to...

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US Fed maintains its hawkish stance as stagflation intensifies

Posted on : Mon, 10 Oct 2022 As the majority of analysts anticipated, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its...

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Is China on the verge of a cyclical recovery?

Posted on : Mon, 3 Oct 2022 China remains a major source of uncertainty for the global growth outlook this...

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The ECB is under pressure to restore policy credibility

Posted on : Mon, 26 Sep 2022 There are few precedents to the magnitude, breadth and depth of the negative...

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Prices caps and windfall taxes won’t fix Europe’s broken energy market

Posted on : Mon, 19 Sep 2022 European policymakers are facing an unprecedented constellation of shocks hitting the economy, including...

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How much more tightening can the US Fed still do?

Posted on : Mon, 12 Sep 2022 Every summer, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) organizes a coveted economic policy symposium...

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Are ASEAN economies resilient to global financial shocks?

Posted on : Mon, 5 Sep 2022 With a strong economic recovery from the temporary collapse produced by different variants...

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Unpacking the strong USD

Posted on : Mon, 29 Aug 2022 As the saying goes, the “USD is King.” This seems to be a...

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Europe’s energy crisis will be a persistent economic headwind

Posted on : Mon, 22 Aug 2022 Europe’s dependence on Russian gas has been increasing for the past few decades...

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Singapore’s overheating economy requires further tightening

Posted on : Mon, 15 Aug 2022 Singapore’s economy is booming and there are some indicators that suggest it may...

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Global economic growth is stagnating in 2022, but is that a recession?

Posted on : Mon, 8 Aug 2022 A lot has been written in recent months about whether the US, Euro...

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The ECB is preparing the groundwork for more aggressive tightening

Posted on : Mon, 1 Aug 2022 European bond markets have been particularly volatile in recent weeks as the general...

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How bad is the inflation problem in emerging Asia?

Posted on : Tue, 26 Jul 2022 High and rising inflation has dominated the economic agenda in recent months. The...

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China’s economic outlook is weakened by Covid-Zero strategy

Posted on : Mon, 18 Jul 2022 China’s Covid-Zero strategy was effective in 2020 China is where Covid-19 was first...

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The US Fed and the ECB are under pressure to deliver lower inflation

Posted on : Mon, 11 Jul 2022 Global bond and equity markets have been particularly volatile in recent weeks as...

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Persistently high food prices add to pressure to normalise interest rates

Posted on : Mon, 4 Jul 2022 The world is dealing with severe stagflation, with decade-high inflation and slowing economic...

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Despite its hawkish rhetoric the ECB cannot follow the Fed

Posted on : Tue, 28 Jun 2022 Global inflation is at its highest level for decades, especially in advanced economies,...

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China’s growth outlook muddied by a plethora of uncertainties

Posted on : Thu, 5 May 2022 China is a major source of uncertainty for the global growth outlook in...

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Headwinds pose downside risks and lead to lower global growth

Posted on : Tue, 26 Apr 2022 The dominant global macro theme for the last year and a half has...

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Covid-19 is gradually becoming endemic, but risks remain

Posted on : Mon, 18 Apr 2022 More than two years since Covid-19 was first discovered, China again appears to...

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Geopolitical disruptions spur the potential for an energy crisis in Europe

Posted on : Mon, 11 Apr 2022 In early 2020, the spread of Covid-19 spurred the worst global recession since...

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Russo-Ukrainian conflict shocks commodity markets

Posted on : Mon, 4 Apr 2022 The 2020s are proving to be a period turmoil with shocks and uncertainty....

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US Fed hiked rates and is set to double down on inflation control

Posted on : Mon, 28 Mar 2022 The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is on the move. After several months managing...

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ECB lift-off likely to be delayed by conflict in Ukraine

Posted on : Mon, 21 Mar 2022 The unprecedented strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus in advanced economies led to...

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Global debt has hit a record USD 296 trillion and may limit rate hikes

Posted on : Wed, 9 Mar 2022 The global pandemic has caused the largest surge in debt since World War...

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Why is Southeast Asia lagging behind in the global economic recovery

Posted on : Tue, 1 Mar 2022 Over the last several decades, Sotheast Asia was a synonym for economic dynamism,...

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Central banks may jump start, then slow the pace of interest rate hikes

Posted on : Mon, 21 Feb 2022 Consumer price inflation in the US, UK and Euro area is the highest...

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Crude oil prices are set to remain strong

Posted on : Tue, 8 Feb 2022 The fallout from the global spread of Covid-19 produced tremendous stress in energy...

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US Federal Reserve doubles down on “hawkish pivot”

Posted on : Mon, 31 Jan 2022 The US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to drive the economic agenda, setting the...

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Omicron is a limited and temporary headwind for the global economy

Posted on : Mon, 17 Jan 2022 More than two years since Covid-19 was first discovered, the global economy...

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A Covid-19 surge in Northern Europe to become an economic headwind

Posted on : Wed, 5 Jan 2022 Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the majority of countries in emerging Asia...

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Headwinds to the outlook for economic growth in ASEAN-5

Posted on : Wed, 5 Jan 2022 Since the outbreak of the pandemic, the majority of countries in emerging Asia...

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Global interest rates will be lower for longer to support growth

Posted on : Sun, 17 Nov 2019 The global economy is sailing into headwinds, the most obvious of which is...

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US Fed cut rates again and signals a pause for breath

Posted on : Sun, 10 Nov 2019 The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has decided to cut rates for the third...

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Bank Indonesia cut policy rates further to support economy

Posted on : Sun, 3 Nov 2019 Bank Indonesia (BI), the central bank of Southeast Asia’s largest economy, decided to...

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Global growth is slowing and the strength of the recovery is uncertain

Posted on : Sun, 27 Oct 2019 In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts...

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